U.S. Warns of Azerbaijani Aggression as It Continues Land Corridor Demand from Armenia

The United States has cautioned that Azerbaijan's persistent insistence on a "land corridor" through Armenia to Nakhijevan heightens the risk of armed conflict, exacerbating already tense relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The warning, issued by the US intelligence community as part of the annual Worldwide Threat Assessment report, shows the precarious nature of the situation in the region. According to the report, the lack of a bilateral peace treaty, coupled with the close proximity of military forces and Azerbaijan's willingness to exert military pressure during negotiations with Armenia, indicates that tensions are likely to persist.

The Azerbaijani occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh, along with Azerbaijan's demand for access to a land corridor, is identified as a key factor exacerbating the risk of armed confrontation. The report emphasizes that Azerbaijan's assertiveness in pursuing these objectives raises the stakes and could potentially lead to a dangerous escalation.

The report also addresses Azerbaijan's military offensive in September, which resulted in the forced displacement of 120,000 of the Armenian population in Artsakh. According to US intelligence agencies, Azerbaijan's actions effectively removed the Nagorno-Karabakh issue from the bilateral peace agenda, allowing Baku to proceed with plans to integrate the occupied region into Azerbaijan.

While the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan has temporarily reduced volatility in the region, the report warns that a military confrontation remains a distinct possibility. However, it suggests that any such confrontation would likely be limited in duration and intensity.